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I was not surprised with the results here with Sam Lim holding on and I expect this to be a Labor hold in 2028.
For the first time in decades, Labor’s 2PP was higher in Tangney than in WA overall.
If it loses that canning vale tail it could be easier for the libs
Tangney is not as affluent as Curtin but along with Moore will be next most affluent seats. The difference between Moore and Tangney despite simmilar SES is that Mooore is far less diverse. The seats that voted more Liberal include the Non Metro seats of Canning, Forrest, Durack and O’Connor all Coalition held, Peri-Urban Bullwinkle. Pearce is less affluent and increasingly urban but is less Diverse which is why it is more Liberal now than Tangney.
I cant see Tangney being more Labor than Swan, Cowan, Hasluck and Burt though.
In Cowan, it’ll be interesting to see once the red tide recedes if Anne Aly has built a personal vote (personally, I believe she has). Sam Lim might’ve already done so here, and it’s clear he’s a good fit for the seat.
@ CJ
It is possible If there is a 10% Uniform Swing back to Coalition in WA. Then Bullwinkle, Moore and Tangney will fall
Before any one Jumps up i know swings are never uniform but it is just to illustrate a point Labor will keep Swan, Cowan, Burt, Hasluck and the 3 seats they held low points in 1996 and 2013.
Cowan and Burt are actually more diverse than Tangney albeit with a lower Chinese community but many other communities instead.
Labor got almost 56% TPP in WA in may and for a state like WA that is not sustainable.
The Labor 2PP in Tangney is higher than the state 2PP. This follows swings to Labor above the statewide and nationwide average in 2022 and 2025. Methinks a big reason is that there is a political realignment with more educated, white collar professionals moving towards Labor. There were big swings to Labor in upper middle class suburbs north of Leach Hwy in 2025.
I think 2022 was just one Red Wave that cut across demographics while 2025 should more nuance especially education, CALD status etc. I just cant see a scenario where Labor holds on to Tangney but loses Cowan, Hasluck and Burt, the latter 3 seats also had a swing to Labor as did Perth. Brand was in essence status quo. The Statewide swing in WA was only 0.85%
The WA Liberals are feeling the loss of Julie Bishop, especially in fundraising. WA used to support not only their own campaigns, but also campaigns in the Eastern states
@Mark Yore she’s the last part of the WA Liberals that was actually ‘good’ in some way or another. Once she was gone the whole party’s gone to the gutter.
Unless another JBish rises like a phoenix out of the ashes in WA they can continue to dwell in their doldrums.
Hastie could fit that bill (despite being very different to JBish politically) but I’m not 100% sure.
i wouldnt rule out cowan being won back but theyll probly have to wait til Aly retires. also they may get more favourable boundaries if wa were to get a 17th seat in 2029.